Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
Weekly Commentary (Updated Oct. 3, 2024): Ridley Scott’s historical epic “Gladiator” (2000) took home the best picture Oscar at the 73rd Academy Awards; however, the English-born filmmaker lost in the director to Steven Soderbergh for “Traffic.”
Now, 24 years later, Scott is gearing up to release the long-awaited sequel, produced by Paramount Pictures, with an all-star cast including Paul Mescal, Denzel Washington, and Pedro Pascal. The film’s early buzz has ignited excitement among cinephiles and industry predictors.
A veteran auteur, Scott is often considered one of Hollywood’s most overdue directors despite receiving three Oscar nominations. His previous nods include “Thelma & Louise” (1991) and “Black Hawk Down” (2001), though neither film snagged the best picture noms. Yet, the anticipation surrounding Scott’s work remains high, especially with a sequel to “Gladiator” on the horizon.
Although, Scott’s critical reception has been inconsistent in recent years. For every well-received effort like “American Gangster” (2007) and “The Martian” (2015) — both of which earned significant Oscar nominations — there have been notable misfires such as “Robin Hood” (2010) and “Exodus: Gods and Kings” (2014). However, there may be something different this time around. Even if the film primarily excels in technical categories, history has shown that visually stunning films, like Ang Lee’s “Life of Pi” or Alfonso Cuarón’s “Gravity,” can still propel directors to the Dolby Theatre stage.
By the time Oscar nominations roll around, Scott will be 87, which, if nominated, would make him the oldest person ever recognized (surpassing Martin Scorsese, who was 81 when recognized for “Killers of the Flower Moon”). Interestingly, Oscar history shows that a director whose film won best picture but lost director can still come back for a win with a sequel. Francis Ford Coppola achieved this feat when he lost director for “The Godfather” (1972) but won the category with “The Godfather Part II” (1974), which was among the six Oscars awarded to the film that night.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.
** denotes the film is not yet dated or can open in 2025.
And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank
Performer & Film
1
Ridley Scott — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
2
Jacques Audiard — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
3
Sean Baker — “Anora” (Neon)
4
Brady Corbet — “The Brutalist” (A24)
5
Walter Salles — “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Oscars: Best Director (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)
Next in Line
Rank
Performer & Film
6
Pedro Almodóvar — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
7
Denis Villeneuve — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
8
Edward Berger — “Conclave” (Focus Features)
9
Steve McQueen — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
10
James Mangold — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Oscars: Best Director (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)
Other Contenders
Rank
Performer & Film
11
Mohammad Rasoulof — “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon)
12
Jason Reitman — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
13
Tim Fehlbaum — “September 5” (Paramount Pictures)
14
Pablo Larraín — “Maria” (Netflix)
15
Malcolm Washington — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
16
Greg Kwedar — “Sing Sing” (A24)
17
Jon M. Chu — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
18
Payal Kapadia — “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
19
RaMell Ross — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)
20
Todd Phillips — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
Oscars: Best Director (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)
Also In Contention
Rank
Performer & Film
21
Ali Abbasi — “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)
22
Coralie Fargeat — “The Substance” (Mubi)
23
Robert Zemeckis — “Here” (Sony Pictures)
24
Mike Leigh — “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
25
Robert Eggers — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
26
Luca Guadagnino — “Queer” (A24)
27
Jesse Eisenberg — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
28
Halina Reijn — “Babygirl” (A24)
29
Alessandra Lacorazza Samudio — “In the Summers” (Music Box Films)
30
Michael Gracey — “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
Oscars: Best Director (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)
Eligible Titles (Best Director)
** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
More Information (Oscars: Best Director)
2024 category winner: Christopher Nolan — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
2024 Oscars Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit)
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
